Curated Picks

178 events · latest Oct 9, 2026

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Oct 9 tweet SemiAnalysis — rising H100 rents break the depreciation curve lenders underwrite, with $7T of debt coming CRWV NBIS

Oct 9 pick Semafor — a large tanker from the US to Asia now costs up to $77M to hire, from under $10M last year FRO DHT BWET

Oct 9 tweet Eric Nuttall — $80-plus WTI for 2027 is now on the table, with free-cash-flow yields up about half XLE XOP

Oct 9 tweet Convequity — Lumentum's laser demand rides on CPO design choices that are still open LITE

Oct 9 pick Bloomberg — asset managers are dumping long-duration Treasury futures, a sign of forced selling TLT

Oct 9 tweet Aakash Gupta — SpaceX's 800 MHz buy is the indoor layer satellites were missing VZ T TMUS +1

Oct 8 tweet Zephyr on Shanu Mathew's math — lab revenue per gigawatt, and a $600B 2027 case

Oct 8 tweet SemiAnalysis — HBM de-specs to bandwidth; hybrid bonding goes from when to if SKHY BESIY

Oct 8 pick Semafor — Houthis strike Riyadh a second day as Iran steps up Hormuz attacks

Oct 8 tweet Gaurab Chakrabarti — the 1,120-day transformer wait runs through one US steel line CLF

Oct 8 tweet Chris Camillo — OpenAI's $70B vs $50B is gross vs net, not lost demand

Oct 8 pick Bloomberg — Firmus shelves its IPO, a warning for data-center listings

Oct 6 reddit r/investing summary of a Goldman Sachs derivatives note — the S&P 500 now trades as an AI basket, not a macro clearing price SPY IWM

Oct 6 pick MarketWatch — Google's new Constellation nuclear deal equals the output of a new reactor CEG GOOGL

Oct 6 tweet Frontier Map — Europe paid 8.6 times the US gas price in September as Hormuz cut Qatar's LNG exports LNG

Oct 6 pick Bain & Company — sustaining today's AI capex would take an AI market near $6 trillion a year

Oct 6 pick Applied Digital — up to 1 GW of potential power capacity in Finland, its first international development APLD

Oct 2 tweet Serenity — Lumentum's CEO says the company can supply only 30% of 2027 demand as co-packaged optics arrive LITE COHR

Oct 2 tweet SemiAnalysis — ruthenium, a hard-drive input, went from about $560 an ounce in early 2025 to near $1,950 in September STX WDC

Oct 2 tweet SemiAnalysis — Google's GPU cloud climbs to Gold in ClusterMAX, but CoreWeave and Nebius are still the Platinum names it holds up as the bar CRWV NBIS GOOGL

Oct 2 tweet Frontier Map — the 130-week bushing, not the transformer core, is the grid's longest lead time

Oct 1 tweet Serenity — Morgan Stanley hears 3.2T Chinese transceiver curbs are coming, with a 65% US-content escape hatch LITE COHR AAOI +3

Oct 1 tweet Paradis — Micron's Q4 deck: 26 strategic customer agreements and $32B in commitments, mostly cash deposits MU

Oct 1 tweet KawzInvests — open models now carry 61% of Vercel gateway tokens while H200/B200 rents rise and H100/A100 rents fall NBIS CRWV

Oct 1 tweet KawzInvests — Credo's growth beyond copper: optics above $600M in FY27 plus a 1.6T AEC ramp CRDO

Oct 1 tweet Gaurab — Patriot missile replenishment runs through a handful of US ball-screw grinders LMT RTX

Oct 1 tweet Eric Nuttall — exports recover to a 14.3MM bbl/d 7-day average but are still ~4MM short, and OilX has Mideast output down 6.6MM bbl/d USO BNO

Sep 29 tweet Lin — Nvidia Open Agent Ecosystem watchlist

Sep 28 tweet Vivek V Rao — Moving average grid search with Sharpe deflation

Sep 28 pick CNBC — Meta recruits MongoDB CEO to build its enterprise platform MDB META

Sep 25 tweet Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) — Akamai's $11.6B Anthropic deal pre-buys memory ahead of a stated AI slowdown AKAM AMD MU

Sep 25 pick SemiAnalysis — 1,000+ Chinese AI data centers mapped, one hyperscaler leasing a fifth of national capacity

Sep 25 tweet Citrini — 738 controlled tests point to a bigger Fastly role in Meta Muse traffic than analysts have priced FSLY META

Sep 25 pick Bloomberg — SK Hynix weighs a 2027 US listing for its Solidigm flash unit MU SNDK

Sep 25 pick Bloomberg — Lutnick's $1.6B rare-earth magnet bet raises a conflict-of-interest question USAR

Sep 25 pick Bloomberg — Apollo gates its $26B credit BDC for a third straight quarter APO

Sep 25 tweet amit (@amitisinvesting) — SemiAnalysis' ClusterMax 3.0 adds Nebius alongside CoreWeave at the top GPU-cloud tier NBIS CRWV

Sep 23 pick MarketWatch — Micron has become a battleground stock as the AI narrative shifts to the durability of memory demand MU SNDK

Sep 23 pick MarketWatch — fewer stocks are carrying the S&P 500 than at any time since the dot-com peak SPY RSP QQQ

Sep 23 pick Frontier Map — gas turbines: the plans, the slots and the factories behind the US gas-fired buildout GEV VRT ETN

Sep 23 pick CNBC — the market now prices the next Fed hike for October after Barr's comments and a hot S&P Global inflation reading XLU XLRE XLF +1

Sep 23 pick Bloomberg — Nvidia is now among the most traded names in US credit default swaps as investors hedge its debt after June's billion bond sale NVDA

Sep 23 pick Bloomberg — five-year Treasury yields breach 5% for the first time since 2007 as the bond slide deepens TLT IEF LQD +1

Sep 22 pick MarketWatch — jet fuel is following diesel's price jump as refineries run short VLO PSX MPC +2

Sep 22 pick Endpoints — Nvidia-backed AI biotech Iambic Therapeutics files for IPO NVDA XBI

Sep 22 pick AXIS CEO Vince Tizzio — marine cover around Hormuz is up 30-40% on a year ago AXS FRO DHT +2

Sep 21 pick Vik's Newsletter — ECOC 2026 product announcements around optical scale-up LITE COHR TER

Sep 21 pick SemiAnalysis — how mixture-of-experts models map onto inference hardware NVDA MU ALAB

Sep 21 pick CNBC — Texas governor orders a data-center permit halt weeks after a moratorium VST IREN APLD +1

Sep 21 pick CNBC — Monday's gain carried a breadth reading not seen since 1999 SPY RSP QQQ

Sep 21 pick Bloomberg — a CoreWeave-leased data center goes to the junk-bond market for about $1.1 billion CRWV OWL

Sep 18 pick Semafor — shipowners ordered twice 2025's tanker count this year, the biggest buying spree in 25 years FRO DHT STNG +1

Sep 18 pick SEC clears path for tokenized stocks, bringing the market closer to 24/7 trading COIN HOOD BTC-USD

Sep 18 pick Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Just Stopped Selling After a 260,000 BTC Dump BTC-USD IBIT MSTR

Sep 18 pick CNBC — record diesel hits trucks and rails first, then everything they carry VLO PSX MPC +1

Sep 18 pick Aju Press — Hormuz is down to four ships a day and war-risk cover costs 40 times normal FRO STNG INSW

Sep 16 tweet Serenity — Foxconn's interconnect chairman names CW lasers and fiber the photonics bottleneck LITE COHR AAOI +3

Sep 16 tweet SemiAnalysis — Rubin NVL72 benches at 7x the performance per watt of GB300, not the 3x claimed NVDA

Sep 16 pick Reuters — SK Hynix in talks to build memory in the US with Intel for the first time INTC SKHY MU

Sep 16 reddit Reuters — Canada makes immediate capex write-offs permanent, cutting its effective tax rate on new investment to 6.4%

Sep 16 tweet Paradis — Nebius raises rates on four-year-old H100s, and the GPU-depreciation bear case with them NBIS CRWV NVDA

Sep 14 pick Elmet — a $450M Department of War committed investment in US and allied tungsten supply ELMT

Sep 10 tweet Winston — Permian output nearly quadrupled on flat completion counts because laterals went from 6,149 ft to 10,867 ft

Sep 10 tweet Terry — Citi Global TMT readout: NAND TAM $50B to $500B by 2027, AMD CPU TAM $60B to $220B, optical testing capacity about 100x short SNDK MU AMD +3

Sep 10 tweet Serenity — HBM scarcity has pushed Chinese AI accelerator prices up 20-50% in two months MU SKHY

Sep 10 tweet SemiAnalysis — the AI trade's third derivative is ABF substrate equipment, chemistry and film, not the substrate makers

Sep 10 tweet M. V. Cunha — Nebius management at Goldman: demand visibility stretches to 24+ months, older GPUs stay economically relevant NBIS CRWV PLTR +2

Sep 10 tweet CV Research via CK Capital — AI power loss scales with current squared, not watts, and one vendor transforms instead of switching VICR

Sep 8 tweet The Iran war's price scoreboard: European gas +143% and still climbing BNO USO FCG

Sep 7 pick TrendForce — Enterprise SSD demand and emerging supply

Sep 7 pick TrendForce — DRAM pricing meets the affordability test

Sep 3 tweet Eric Nuttall - 60 days to the midterms with diesel at a record XLE XOP VLO +4

Sep 2 tweet Winston - the US and China drew almost the same fossil-fuel share of power in 2025

Sep 2 tweet Serenity - Nvidia told JPMorgan its demand could run 100%+ y/y unconstrained NVDA

Sep 2 tweet Serenity - Broadcom's CEO: laser demand "far surpassing supply" AVGO

Sep 2 tweet Paradis - TrendForce: memory chips to hit 68% of cloud-provider capex in 2027 MU SNDK

Sep 2 tweet IPO Newsroom - Nscale now touts $103B in contracted revenue ahead of its IPO

Sep 2 tweet Eric Nuttall - global oil inventories at all-time lows despite record SPR/floating-storage draws

Sep 1 pick US 30-Year Bond Enters September on Worst Stretch Since 2006 TLT

Sep 1 pick Palo Alto Networks Beats Quarterly Estimates on AI Demand PANW

Sep 1 pick Bond Slide Spreads to Emerging Markets on Fed Rate Hike Bets HYG

Sep 1 tweet HBM shortage reportedly forces a Rubin Ultra spec cut — the memory trade has a bearish edge NVDA MU SNDK

Aug 28 tweet US M2 money supply surged $102.8 billion in a month

Aug 28 tweet a16z raises a $1.1B Machine Age fund aimed at AI infrastructure

Aug 27 tweet Anthropic could be public within weeks — prospectus after Labor Day, secondary sales included

Aug 25 pick China needs U.S. dollars but is building a hedge against Washington's sanctions GLD SIL UUP

Aug 24 pick The Strait of Hormuz: Security Developments and Impacts on Oil, Gas, and Other Commodities USO BNO XLE +1

Aug 22 tweet The Kobeissi Letter — South Korea's chip trade surplus hit a record ~$35B in June, more than tripling in 12 months MU SNDK EWY

Aug 22 tweet SemiAnalysis — 3D NAND is switching word lines from tungsten to molybdenum above ~300 layers MU SNDK AMAT +1

Aug 22 tweet IPO Newsroom — Anthropic bankers floated a $100B+ raise at a $2T valuation, per NYT (early discussions) MSFT NVDA

Aug 19 tweet zephyr_z9 — Marvell hands Google a warrant for ~6.7% of the company, vesting on custom-chip revenue MRVL GOOGL

Aug 19 tweet michaelsikand — Unitree pops +629% on its China listing TER ISRG

Aug 19 tweet Anthropic — Claude designs novel protein binders against 14 of 15 targets TWST MRNA

Aug 18 tweet US margin debt fell $85B in July to $1.42T — the largest monthly drop on record SPY

Aug 18 tweet Transmission is the binding constraint on new generation — Pepco's rights-of-way rebuild is the template

Aug 18 tweet Anthropic's pre-IPO credit facility is set to top its $10B target — lead banks asked for ~$1.25B each

Aug 17 tweet SemiAnalysis on Google's TPU interconnect: 2D torus to 3D torus and what it buys

Aug 17 tweet Memory bull consolidation: 2027 DRAM and HBM capacity reportedly sold out MU SNDK

Aug 17 tweet Chinese chip industry revenue +22% YoY to a record $245B

Aug 17 tweet APP channel check: a former AppLovin employee on the ad-model moat APP META GOOGL

Aug 17 tweet Anthropic run-rate passes $65B ahead of its IPO - up sevenfold in seven months

Aug 15 pick CME and Silicon Data will list GPU-rental futures on October 5 CME NVDA

Aug 13 pick Viks Newsletter — where copper and optics still contradict each other

Aug 13 tweet Photon Capital — COHR’s AI mix and InP capacity ramp COHR

Aug 13 pick Bloomberg — Chicago joins the data-center moratorium push

Aug 12 tweet The photonics desk's COHR scorecard: $2.05B at the top of guide COHR CIEN NOK +1

Aug 11 tweet The Kobeissi Letter — memory is now the tape: NVDA, MU and SNDK are three of the four most-traded US stocks NVDA MU TSLA +1

Aug 11 tweet SemiAnalysis — TileRT compiles the whole model into one persistent GPU kernel, claiming 1.9x decode interactivity on the same Blackwell chips NVDA

Aug 8 tweet Winston (ChurchillWw) — a Mountain Pass-to-Fort Worth rare-earth magnet is now in an automaker's qualification process MP

Aug 8 tweet Serenity (aleabitoreddit) — White House puts real dollars behind critical-minerals names: WWR, SRL, FEAM, HREE WWR SRL FEAM

Aug 8 tweet Serenity (aleabitoreddit) — AAOI's earnings call says China is years behind on CPO lasers, and AAOI itself is capacity-out of first-gen CPO AAOI SIVEF LITE +2

Aug 8 tweet IPO Newsroom — NVIDIA is putting up to $3B into the Blackstone-backed firm that owns the land under Stargate NVDA BX

Aug 8 tweet Gaurab Chakrabarti — sulfuric acid for copper leaching has roughly doubled since February

Aug 8 tweet Gaetano (crux_capital_) — the market sold off the wrong optical name: his bull case for why AXTI's China selloff is negotiating leverage, not a real ban AXTI AAOI COHR +1

Aug 6 tweet The Kobeissi Letter — record 4.0M S&P 500 call volume as put/call skew posts its biggest two-day drop since 2017 SPY VIXY

Aug 5 tweet Gavin Baker on Invest Like the Best — no slowdown on the ground: old GPUs repricing up, the memory war, and who funds the buildout NVDA MU SNDK +1

Aug 4 tweet Zephyr — AMD's 'Venice beats Vera by 20%' claim points at a chip missing from AMD's own price list NVDA AMD

Aug 4 pick Odd Lots — tungsten mining as a century-old prediction market for war

Aug 4 tweet MarkosAAIG — Samsung's HBM4 base die is a foundry advantage rivals can't copy 005930.KS

Aug 4 tweet KawzInvests — hyperscalers' $270bn debt raise is backed by $7 of signed backlog per $1 borrowed MSFT ORCL GOOGL +1

Aug 4 tweet Gaurab Chakrabarti — no US forge can build the heart of a large nuclear reactor

Aug 4 tweet Gaurab Chakrabarti — Iran-linked hackers targeted pressure setpoints at 30+ Minnesota water utilities

Aug 4 tweet ChurchillWw — ZEISS is expanding all three of its main German optics plants at once ASML

Jul 31 tweet @gabriel_horwitz — Korea's 'ants': the generation that turned the stock market into its housing fund EWY

Jul 31 tweet @fintergirl — Korean retail's 2x inverse SK Hynix ETF lost ~60% in one day when the squeeze snapped back EWY SKHY

Jul 28 tweet zephyr_z9 — China's chip-export jump traces to Korean-owned fabs, not indigenous mature-node output HY9H.F

Jul 28 reddit r/stocks — CXMT's IPO pop doesn't touch SK Hynix's actual HBM thesis HY9H.F

Jul 28 tweet crux_capital_ — the photonics buildout isn't over, even at the height of fear LITE GLW COHR +2

Jul 28 pick AXT — Tongmei withdraws Shanghai STAR IPO bid, pivots to Hong Kong listing for InP business AXTI

Jul 26 reddit u/rdh2dmd — Samsung, SK Group seal $950B in AI deals with Nvidia and Broadcom NVDA AVGO 005930.KS +1

Jul 26 reddit u/app1310 — Short sellers notch $15.5B profit as SpaceX slides below its IPO price SPCX TSLA

Jul 26 reddit u/aperartnft — Alphabet's 82% cloud growth got sold anyway; capex guidance is why GOOGL TSLA

Jul 26 tweet ParadisLabs — LPKF Laser H1: ugly headline numbers, more nuanced underneath LPK.DE LPKFF

Jul 22 reddit u/aperartnft — NVDA's 9.3% Nebius stake: guaranteed customer or circular financing NVDA NBIS

Jul 22 pick Alphabet Q2: $44.9B quarterly capex, $180-190B FY guide, 2027 'significantly increases' GOOGL NVDA CEG +1

Jul 22 pick ADATA chairman: DRAM shortage lasts another 10 years, 'AI bubble talk can wait until 2040' MU SNDK

Jul 20 pick Semafor — the AI memory shortage is going geopolitical MU SNDK

Jul 20 pick CNBC — Seoul's leveraged retail is the forced seller under the memory crash

Jul 20 pick ChinaTalk — will Xi license, lock down, or let frontier models rip?

Jul 20 pick Bloomberg — shipowners offer six months' extra pay to sail Hormuz USO BNO

Jul 20 pick Bloomberg — BlackRock readying $12B+ of bonds for a Meta data-center campus META

Jul 19 pick Semafor — Iran ceasefire is formally dead; 16 US troops killed as strikes resume

Jul 19 pick Doomberg — 2025 was China's solar high-water mark TAN ICLN

Jul 19 pick Bloomberg — CPC halts Black Sea oil loadings after drone strike USO BNO

Jul 18 tweet SemiAnalysis: K3's linear attention is bullish, not bearish, for NVIDIA/HBM/networking NVDA MU

Jul 17 tweet SemiAnalysis — AMD Helios vs NVIDIA Vera Rubin: double-wide racks and where the rack-level constraints bite

Jul 17 pick Semafor — Kimi K3 threatens AI business models, not AI compute NVDA

Jul 17 pick MarketWatch — Meet Kimi K3, the newest Chinese AI model haunting Silicon Valley

Jul 17 pick CNBC — The best energy stocks as two major conflicts keep oil elevated

Jul 17 pick CNBC — Chinese AI has leveled up, and the open-weight shift is the story

Jul 17 pick ChinaTalk — China's Mythos Moment: how Beijing responds when a Chinese lab reaches the frontier

Jul 16 tweet Winston (@ChurchillWw) — PJM capacity auction clears at $325/MW-day, still ~7GW short

Jul 16 tweet Winston (@ChurchillWw) — four US microreactors hit first criticality in five weeks

Jul 16 pick Viks Newsletter — Lasers for CPO/NPO, Part 1: how the InP DFB laser works and where it hits a wall

Jul 16 pick Sherwood — General Fusion debuts on the Nasdaq, putting a fusion moonshot on the public tape

Jul 16 pick Odd Lots — NY Governor Hochul on her one-year data-center moratorium

Jul 16 pick Nutty — Investor's Handbook III: Substrate, where glass packaging starts getting paid

Jul 16 pick Doomberg — Artificial Bloom: rare earths, short sellers, and Chinese competition

Jul 15 pick Stripe & Advent bid $53B for PayPal — payments consolidation goes big PYPL

Jul 15 pick SK Hynix options launch — but peers are stealing the memory thunder MU SNDK

Jul 15 pick New York becomes first US state to ban new AI data centers GEV VST

Jul 15 pick Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan emerging as AI winners JPME GSE BAC

Jul 15 pick DTCC pilots tokenized settlement with Vanguard, BlackRock, JPMorgan JPME

Jul 13 pick Wonderful at a Fair Price — 'Micron Stock and the $26.5 Billion Tell' MU SNDK SKHY

Jul 13 tweet Semiconductor Insider — Korea Investment Securities cuts SK Hynix 2026-27 operating profit 9-11% on HBM4 ramp delays MU SNDK EWY

Jul 13 reddit r/wallstreetbets — Meta's Louisiana data center to surpass $250B price tag META GEV VRT +1

Jul 13 reddit r/stocks — TSMC reports 68% surge in June revenue TSM NVDA MU

Jul 13 reddit r/stocks — SK Hynix tumbles 15% in Seoul AFTER a record Nasdaq ADR debut ($26.5B, 7x oversubscribed, ADR +13%) SKHY MU SNDK +1

Jul 13 tweet P Equity Research — BofA: memory indicator near record highs (183 vs past peaks of 120-130), super-cycle intact MU SNDK

Jul 13 tweet Jukan — NVIDIA's NDR: memory shortage expected to persist for several years MU SNDK NVDA

Jul 13 tweet Global Markets Investor — KOSPI -9%, trading halted; SK Hynix -15%, its largest daily drop on record EWY MU SNDK

Jul 13 discord Dumb Money Discord — the viral 'rideable floating duck' / porch-goose trend (Five Below) FIVE

Jul 2 tweet @TheProfInvestor — sector rotation: Tech red → Healthcare/Financials leading (+ 25 bio names) UNHE HIMS LLY +3

Jul 2 tweet @ren_stocks — long $NBIS, doubled the dip: hyperscaler excess-compute neocloud thesis NBIS

Jul 2 tweet @kawzinvests — defense trade reignites: $AVAV monster quarter (rev +15%, EPS +24%) AVAV

Jul 2 tweet @crux_capital_ — the two real bear cases for the photonics supercycle (laser oversupply vs VCSEL-over-SiPh) CIEN AAOI COHR +1

Jul 2 tweet @crux_capital_ — his 5 conviction Physical AI names (40-50% of book): OUST/AMBA/CGNX/AEVA/VPG/CCXI OUST AMBA CGNX +3

Jul 2 tweet @ChurchillWw — the single-crystal turbine-blade duopoly (Howmet + Precision Castparts) HWM